Sector baseline · Research consensus

AI displacement risk in transportation

Transportation averages 20 out of 100 across 53 published occupations. Behind it, Recycling Coordinators scores 39 and Dredge Operators scores 7, a 32 point spread. That is narrower than the 42 point gap between the most and least exposed sector overall, so Transportation moves together more than most fields do.

Sector average, out of 100

Occupations scored

Point spread, 7 to 39

Occupations scoring 40 or above

How the sector splits

Of the 53, 0 occupations clear 70 and count as high risk, 0 sit between 40 and 69, and 53 fall below 40.

Exposure follows the tasks inside a role rather than the field it sits in, so two jobs that share a sector can still land far apart. The whole published set averages 31 across 961 occupations in 21 sectors. How scoring works

Every transportation occupation, most exposed first

Rank is against the full published set, not against the sector. Every occupation here is backed by at least two distinct published studies.

AI displacement risk scores for 53 transportation occupations
Rank	Occupation	Score	Sources
302	Recycling Coordinators	39	3
342	First-Line Supervisors of Helpers, Laborers, and Material Movers, Hand	37	3
388	Airfield Operations Specialists	34	5
419	Passenger Attendants	33	6
438	Flight Attendants	31	6
449	Transportation Inspectors	31	5
469	Traffic Technicians	30	5
475	First-Line Supervisors of Material-Moving Machine and Vehicle Operators	29	4
482	Railroad Conductors and Yardmasters	29	5
483	Stockers and Order Fillers	29	8
536	Transportation Vehicle, Equipment and Systems Inspectors, Except Aviation	26	5
541	Air Traffic Controllers	25	6
556	Pump Operators, Except Wellhead Pumpers	25	5
558	Taxi Drivers	25	7
583	Subway and Streetcar Operators	24	5
587	First-Line Supervisors of Passenger Attendants	23	4
601	Bus Drivers, Transit and Intercity	22	5
619	Refuse and Recyclable Material Collectors	22	5
626	Bridge and Lock Tenders	21	5
628	Captains, Mates, and Pilots of Water Vessels	21	5
641	Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand	21	11
646	Packers and Packagers, Hand	21	5
651	Aviation Inspectors	20	5
655	Commercial Pilots	20	5
664	Machine Feeders and Offbearers	20	5
673	Rail Yard Engineers, Dinkey Operators, and Hostlers	20	5
690	Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers	19	10
692	Light Truck Drivers	19	10
704	Shuttle Drivers and Chauffeurs	19	6
713	Bus Drivers, School	18	5
715	Conveyor Operators and Tenders	18	5
717	Driver/Sales Workers	18	6
726	Gas Compressor and Gas Pumping Station Operators	18	5
736	Ship Engineers	18	5
758	Parking Attendants	17	6
762	Tank Car, Truck, and Ship Loaders	17	5
765	Airline Pilots, Copilots, and Flight Engineers	16	5
770	Cleaners of Vehicles and Equipment	16	5
777	First-Line Supervisors of Transportation Workers, All Other	16	2
780	Locomotive Engineers	16	5
797	Industrial Truck and Tractor Operators	15	5
806	Railroad Brake, Signal, and Switch Operators and Locomotive Firers	15	5
810	Wellhead Pumpers	15	5
811	Aircraft Cargo Handling Supervisors	14	5
828	Recycling and Reclamation Workers	14	5
860	Automotive and Watercraft Service Attendants	12	6
895	Sailors and Marine Oilers	11	5
899	Aircraft Service Attendants	10	3
904	Crane and Tower Operators	10	5
925	Motorboat Operators	9	5
934	Hoist and Winch Operators	8	5
947	Ambulance Drivers and Attendants, Except Emergency Medical Technicians	7	6
950	Dredge Operators	7	5

The evidence behind these scores

Each score aggregates published academic and industry estimates for that occupation, calibrated onto a common scale before they are combined. Across transportation, the thinnest occupation rests on 2 sources and the best evidenced on 11. Occupations backed by fewer than two distinct sources are not published at all, here or anywhere on the site.

See the dataset and its limits, or the full ranking in one table.

A sector average is not your score

Roles across transportation already run 32 points apart, and the number above is the baseline for a typical version of each one. Seniority and how routine your day is move your own score further still. Answer a few questions and get it free, no sign-up.

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Other sectors

Every sector with at least 15 published occupations has its own baseline. Compare all of them, or browse occupations grouped by sector.

Informational guidance based on published research, not professional career or financial advice. Scores update as new research is ingested.