How likely is AI to replace Captains, Mates, and Pilots of Water Vessels?

Published research puts Captains, Mates, and Pilots of Water Vessels at 21 out of 100 for AI displacement risk, in the lower risk band. The number is a weighted consensus of 5 research sources and describes the typical version of the role, not any individual.

Do researchers agree on the risk for Captains, Mates, and Pilots of Water Vessels?

Only partly. Individual estimates for Captains, Mates, and Pilots of Water Vessels run from 11 to 32 out of 100 across the 5 sources behind this score, so the single number smooths over real disagreement. More recent and higher confidence studies carry more weight in it.

Which transportation roles face similar AI exposure?

The closest published transportation roles to Captains, Mates, and Pilots of Water Vessels by score are Bridge and Lock Tenders (21/100), Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand (21/100), and Packers and Packagers, Hand (21/100). Each has its own page with the research behind its number.

Occupation baseline · Research consensus

Will AI replace Captains, Mates, and Pilots of Water Vessels?

Lower risk

Baseline AI displacement risk for Captains, Mates, and Pilots of Water Vessels, aggregated from 5 research sources.

What this score means

Captains, Mates, and Pilots of Water Vessels is among the least exposed roles in Transportation. Most of what the job involves still sits outside what current AI can do, even as the tools around it keep changing. At 21 out of 100 it sits close to the Transportation average of 20. Across the 5 sources behind this baseline, individual estimates run from 11 to 32, so the score is a weighted consensus rather than any single figure.

The number is a consensus estimate for the typical version of the role, built from published academic and industry research scored occupation by occupation. It is not a prediction about any individual. How scoring works

What this job actually involves

Exposure follows the work itself rather than the job title, so it is worth seeing what the role is made of. These are the tasks O*NET records for Captains, Mates, and Pilots of Water Vessels, most central first, showing 12 of 30.

01Direct courses and speeds of ships, based on specialized knowledge of local winds, weather, water depths, tides, currents, and hazards.
02Prevent ships under navigational control from engaging in unsafe operations.
03Serve as a vessel's docking master upon arrival at a port or at a berth.
04Consult maps, charts, weather reports, or navigation equipment to determine and direct ship movements.
05Steer and operate vessels, using radios, depth finders, radars, lights, buoys, or lighthouses.
06Operate ship-to-shore radios to exchange information needed for ship operations.
07Dock or undock vessels, sometimes maneuvering through narrow spaces, such as locks.
08Stand watches on vessels during specified periods while vessels are under way.
09Inspect vessels to ensure efficient and safe operation of vessels and equipment and conformance to regulations.
10Read gauges to verify sufficient levels of hydraulic fluid, air pressure, or oxygen.
11Report to appropriate authorities any violations of federal or state pilotage laws.
12Provide assistance in maritime rescue operations.

Task statements from O*NET by the National Center for O*NET Development, used under CC BY 4.0. The tasks are descriptive; the exposure score above is ours.

The research behind this score

This baseline aggregates 5 research sources that scored Captains, Mates, and Pilots of Water Vessels for AI and automation exposure. More recent, higher confidence studies carry more weight in the final number.

01Anthropic Economic Index 2026 - AI Task Exposure · 2026Anthropic
02Global Automation Atlas: Task Substitution Exposure by Occupation · 2026Garg, Crosta, Baier (2026), arXiv:2605.17086
03Working with AI: Measuring the Applicability of Generative AI to Occupations · 2025Tomlinson, Jaffe et al., Microsoft Research (2025)
04GPTs are GPTs: Labor Market Impact Potential of LLMs · 2024Eloundou, Manning, Mishkin, Rock (Science, 2024)
05AI Occupational Exposure to Language Modeling · 2023Felten, Raj, Seamans (2023)

Common questions

How likely is AI to replace Captains, Mates, and Pilots of Water Vessels?: Published research puts Captains, Mates, and Pilots of Water Vessels at 21 out of 100 for AI displacement risk, in the lower risk band. The number is a weighted consensus of 5 research sources and describes the typical version of the role, not any individual.
Do researchers agree on the risk for Captains, Mates, and Pilots of Water Vessels?: Only partly. Individual estimates for Captains, Mates, and Pilots of Water Vessels run from 11 to 32 out of 100 across the 5 sources behind this score, so the single number smooths over real disagreement. More recent and higher confidence studies carry more weight in it.
Which transportation roles face similar AI exposure?: The closest published transportation roles to Captains, Mates, and Pilots of Water Vessels by score are Bridge and Lock Tenders (21/100), Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand (21/100), and Packers and Packagers, Hand (21/100). Each has its own page with the research behind its number.

Also covers

Able Bodied Seaman (AB Seaman) · Able Bodied Tankerman (AB Tankerman) · Area Relief Pilot · Bar Pilot · Barge Captain · Barge Master · Barge Mate · Barge Pilot and related titles

Estimated displacement window

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Informational guidance based on published research, not professional career or financial advice. Scores update as new research is ingested.