Will AI replace Commercial Pilots?

What this score means

Commercial Pilots is among the least exposed roles in Transportation. Most of what the job involves still sits outside what current AI can do, even as the tools around it keep changing. At 19 out of 100 it sits close to the Transportation average of 18. Across the 3 sources behind this baseline, individual estimates run from 15 to 22, so the score is a weighted consensus rather than any single figure.

The number is a consensus estimate for the typical version of the role, built from published academic and industry research scored occupation by occupation. It is not a prediction about any individual. How scoring works

What this job actually involves

Exposure follows the work itself rather than the job title, so it is worth seeing what the role is made of. These are the tasks O*NET records for Commercial Pilots, most central first, showing 12 of 24.

• 01Check aircraft prior to flights to ensure that the engines, controls, instruments, and other systems are functioning properly.
• 02Co-pilot aircraft or perform captain's duties, as required.
• 03Consider airport altitudes, outside temperatures, plane weights, and wind speeds and directions to calculate the speed needed to become airborne.
• 04Use instrumentation to pilot aircraft when visibility is poor.
• 05Monitor engine operation, fuel consumption, and functioning of aircraft systems during flights.
• 06Order changes in fuel supplies, loads, routes, or schedules to ensure safety of flights.
• 07Contact control towers for takeoff clearances, arrival instructions, and other information, using radio equipment.
• 08Plan flights according to government and company regulations, using aeronautical charts and navigation instruments.
• 09Start engines, operate controls, and pilot airplanes to transport passengers, mail, or freight according to flight plans, regulations, and procedures.
• 10Check baggage or cargo to ensure that it has been loaded correctly.
• 11Obtain and review data such as load weights, fuel supplies, weather conditions, and flight schedules to determine flight plans and identify needed changes.
• 12Conduct in-flight tests and evaluations at specified altitudes and in all types of weather to determine the receptivity and other characteristics of equipment and systems.

Task statements from O*NET by the National Center for O*NET Development, used under CC BY 4.0. The tasks are descriptive; the exposure score above is ours.

The research behind this score

This baseline aggregates 3 research sources that scored Commercial Pilots for AI and automation exposure. More recent, higher confidence studies carry more weight in the final number.

• 01Anthropic Economic Index 2026 - AI Task Exposure · 2026
• 02GPTs are GPTs: Labor Market Impact Potential of LLMs · 2024
• 03AI Occupational Exposure to Language Modeling · 2023

Also covers

Advanced Air Mobility Operator (AAM Operator) · Advanced Air Mobility Pilot (AAM Pilot) · Advanced Air Mobility Technician (AAM Technician) · Aerial Advertiser · Aerial Crop Duster · Aerial Hurricane Hunter · Aerial Sprayer · Agricultural Pilot and related titles

More transportation occupations

• Air Traffic Controllers28/100
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