Research notes
What the data says
Original analysis built on our own scored dataset rather than opinion. Every figure links back to the occupation pages and sources behind it.
Analysis · 29 October 2026 · 6 min read
Is AI a bubble? What it means for jobs
Musk says 200 neoclouds face "guppy-level death" and Dalio calls AI a bubble. Which jobs a bust would hit, and why it would not stop AI replacing work.
Analysis · 29 October 2026 · 5 min read
Microsoft's 60,000 buyouts, explained
Microsoft offered voluntary exits to a quarter of its staff as AI spending climbs. What was offered, what it says about AI, and what it means for tech jobs.
Analysis · 29 October 2026 · 6 min read
AI washing: are layoffs really caused by AI?
Barclays blamed AI, HubSpot denied it, Netflix never mentioned it. How October 2026 layoffs break down, and three questions to read the next announcement.
Analysis · 20 October 2026 · 7 min read
Pyramid to diamond: AI and company structure
Is AI turning companies from pyramids into diamonds? What Anthropic's hiring data, startup research and a new economic model show, and what it means for you.
Analysis · 20 October 2026 · 6 min read
How AI changed jobs inside Anthropic
Agents outwork staff six to one and junior technical hiring fell from 27 to 9 percent. What Anthropic's report on its own workforce found, and what it means.
Analysis · 8 October 2026 · 5 min read
Claude Haiku 5.5 benchmarks and your job
Haiku 5.5 scores 1,620 on GDPval, above GPT-6 Astra, at a hundredth of the output price. The numbers, the catch, and what it means for jobs.
Analysis · 8 October 2026 · 5 min read
GPT-6.1 Sol benchmarks and your job
GPT-6.1 Sol nearly matches GPT-6 Astra at a fifth of the price and beats it on GDPval. What OpenAI reported, what testing found, and what it means for jobs.
Data study · 1 October 2026 · 5 min read
Will robots take my job? What Anthropic found
Robots can do 74 percent of physical work tasks but are cheaper than a person for 0.3 percent. Which jobs robots could take first, and how long it would take.
Data study · 1 October 2026 · 5 min read
AI vs robots: which one threatens your job?
Across 733 occupations, AI and robot exposure run in opposite directions and no job scores high on both. Which side your job is on, and which is closer.
Data study · 1 October 2026 · 5 min read
Jobs safe from AI and robots, by the data
The jobs least exposed to both AI and robots, from Anthropic data and our index: surgeons, dentists, paramedics and more. The list, and what they share.
Analysis · 30 September 2026 · 6 min read
Dario Amodei's software engineer prediction
In January Amodei said AI would do most software engineering within 12 months. Eight months in: benchmarks, job postings and hiring data, checked.
Analysis · 30 September 2026 · 6 min read
Mustafa Suleyman's white collar AI prediction
Suleyman said most lawyer, accountant and marketing tasks would be automated within 18 months. What Anthropic's usage data shows seven months in.
Analysis · 29 September 2026 · 5 min read
Claude Sonnet 5.5 benchmarks and your job
Sonnet 5.5 scores 1,844 on GDPval, two points behind Opus 5.5, at half the price. The numbers, what independent testing found, and what it means for jobs.
Analysis · 29 September 2026 · 5 min read
Claude Sonnet 5.5 vs Opus 5.5
Near identical on professional work, half the price per token. Where Opus 5.5 still leads, and why Sonnet 5.5 is not always cheaper per finished task.
Analysis · 29 September 2026 · 5 min read
Claude Sonnet 5.5 vs GPT-6 Astra
Sonnet 5.5 beats GPT-6 Astra on terminal work and professional work benchmarks at a fifth of the token price. Where Astra is still stronger.
Guide · 23 September 2026 · 5 min read
How many jobs will AI replace?
Estimates range from 9 to 47 percent of jobs because they count different things. The main figures side by side, and what has actually happened in 2026.
Analysis · 23 September 2026 · 6 min read
The 47% study: what it actually said
The 2013 Oxford paper behind the 47 percent figure never estimated how many jobs would be automated. What it measured, and why others found 9 percent.
Data study · 23 September 2026 · 5 min read
How much time does AI save? By job
Anthropic data on 20 occupations: a programming task drops from 5 hours to 9 minutes, a nursing task only about 4 times faster. What the gap means for jobs.
Analysis · 22 September 2026 · 6 min read
Claude Opus 5.5 benchmarks and your job
Opus 5.5 now leads GDPval, the benchmark built from real professional work. What its numbers say about jobs, and what they cannot.
Analysis · 22 September 2026 · 6 min read
Claude Opus 5.5 pricing and the cost of work
Opus 5.5 costs about 40 percent less to run than Opus 5 at roughly Fable level. Why price, not capability, decides which work gets handed to AI.
Analysis · 22 September 2026 · 7 min read
Claude Opus 5.5: 20 hours of work in 3
A codebase audit that took Opus 5 over 20 hours took Opus 5.5 under 3. What faster long running work means for jobs, with Anthropic usage data by occupation.
Data study · 10 September 2026 · 6 min read
The 11 jobs AI is actually doing
Anthropic measured AI use across 756 occupations. The median is zero and only eleven clear 50 percent. The list, the figures, and what a zero does not mean.
Analysis · 10 September 2026 · 7 min read
What AI can do vs what it does
In computing, 94 percent of tasks are feasible for a model and 33 percent are actually being done. That three to one gap is your runway.
Analysis · 7 September 2026 · 7 min read
Can GPT-6 Astra do your job?
Astra finishes a benchmark task for between $0.63 and $2.57. That number, not the benchmark score, decides which work gets handed over and which does not.
Analysis · 7 September 2026 · 6 min read
GPT-6 Astra vs Claude Fable 5.1
Two flagship models, same headline price, opposite strengths. Compared on the benchmarks built from real occupational work rather than on exam scores.
Analysis · 4 September 2026 · 7 min read
GPT-6 Astra benchmarks and your job
OpenAI says Astra opens the AGI era. The benchmarks that bear on work tell a narrower story, and independent aggregates disagree with the vendor tables.
Analysis · 4 September 2026 · 7 min read
Claude Fable 5.1 benchmarks and your job
Fable 5.1 posts 1,853 Elo on GDPval against a human expert baseline of 1,000. What that measures, where the model still fails, and what both mean for jobs.
Analysis · 25 August 2026 · 6 min read
AI layoffs in 2026: which jobs are being cut
AI was cited in US job cuts covering 205,000 workers by August 2026. How the cut categories compare with the research consensus, occupation by occupation.
Guide · 25 August 2026 · 6 min read
When will AI take your job?
There is no single date. What the 2026 layoff wave and published research actually say about timing, and why your task mix matters more than your job title.
Data study · 9 August 2026 · 7 min read
Two different things are called AI exposure
Some studies measure what language models can do with a job. Others measure how much of it machines could take over. Across 961 scored occupations the two barely correlate, yet both are published under one label.
Guide · 31 July 2026 · 6 min read
Is your job at risk from AI? How to tell
Job titles and industries are weak signals. Across 961 scored occupations, what predicts exposure is your task mix, not your title.
Analysis · 31 July 2026 · 7 min read
Will AI replace entry level jobs?
Payroll data shows a 16 percent relative employment decline for workers aged 22 to 25 in AI exposed occupations. What it means if you are starting out.
Data study · 26 July 2026 · 6 min read
The 25 jobs most exposed to AI, and the 25 least
Both ends of the AI Job Risk Index, ranked from 961 occupations scored against published research. The top and bottom of the list are not what most coverage suggests.
Analysis · 26 July 2026 · 7 min read
What the research actually agrees on about AI and jobs
We scored 961 occupations against 20 published research sources. Almost nothing clears the high risk threshold, and the estimates vary far more than the confident way they are usually quoted.
Looking for a specific job? Browse the full index or scores by sector.