Sector baseline · Research consensus

AI displacement risk in manufacturing

Manufacturing averages 19 out of 100 across 110 published occupations. Behind it, Computer Numerically Controlled Tool Programmers scores 50 and Timing Device Assemblers and Adjusters scores 8, a 42 point spread. That is narrower than the 42 point gap between the most and least exposed sector overall, so Manufacturing moves together more than most fields do.

Sector average, out of 100

110

Occupations scored

Point spread, 8 to 50

Occupation scoring 40 or above

How the sector splits

Of the 110, 0 occupations clear 70 and count as high risk, 1 sits between 40 and 69, and 109 fall below 40.

Exposure follows the tasks inside a role rather than the field it sits in, so two jobs that share a sector can still land far apart. The whole published set averages 31 across 961 occupations in 21 sectors. How scoring works

Every manufacturing occupation, most exposed first

Rank is against the full published set, not against the sector. Every occupation here is backed by at least two distinct published studies.

AI displacement risk scores for 110 manufacturing occupations
Rank	Occupation	Score	Sources
122	Computer Numerically Controlled Tool Programmers	50	5
402	Power Distributors and Dispatchers	34	6
403	Prepress Technicians and Workers	34	7
454	First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers	30	6
493	Meat, Poultry, and Fish Cutters and Trimmers	28	5
506	Computer Numerically Controlled Tool Operators	27	5
508	Fabric and Apparel Patternmakers	27	5
523	Assemblers and Fabricators, All Other	26	5
560	Adhesive Bonding Machine Operators and Tenders	24	5
561	Bakers	24	5
567	Food Cooking Machine Operators and Tenders	24	5
569	Gas Plant Operators	24	5
571	Inspectors, Testers, Sorters, Samplers, and Weighers	24	8
572	Machinists	24	9
576	Patternmakers, Metal and Plastic	24	5
577	Patternmakers, Wood	24	5
578	Photographic Process Workers and Processing Machine Operators	24	5
581	Semiconductor Processing Technicians	24	5
588	Food Batchmakers	23	5
589	Multiple Machine Tool Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic	23	5
592	Plating Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic	23	5
595	Printing Press Operators	23	6
597	Team Assemblers	23	9
608	Lathe and Turning Machine Tool Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic	22	5
610	Model Makers, Wood	22	6
613	Nuclear Power Reactor Operators	22	5
614	Petroleum Pump System Operators, Refinery Operators, and Gaugers	22	5
624	Textile Cutting Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders	22	5
627	Butchers and Meat Cutters	21	5
629	Chemical Equipment Operators and Tenders	21	5
634	Extruding and Drawing Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic	21	5
640	Heat Treating Equipment Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic	21	5
643	Molding, Coremaking, and Casting Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic	21	7
649	Textile Bleaching and Dyeing Machine Operators and Tenders	21	5
650	Woodworking Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Except Sawing	21	5
656	Cooling and Freezing Equipment Operators and Tenders	20	5
658	Drilling and Boring Machine Tool Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic	20	5
660	Food and Tobacco Roasting, Baking, and Drying Machine Operators and Tenders	20	5
661	Grinding, Lapping, Polishing, and Buffing Machine Tool Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic	20	5
666	Metal-Refining Furnace Operators and Tenders	20	6
667	Milling and Planing Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic	20	5
668	Mixing and Blending Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders	20	5
669	Model Makers, Metal and Plastic	20	5
671	Packaging and Filling Machine Operators and Tenders	20	5
674	Separating, Filtering, Clarifying, Precipitating, and Still Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders	20	5
675	Slaughterers and Meat Packers	20	5
679	Biomass Plant Technicians	19	5
680	Chemical Plant and System Operators	19	5
681	Crushing, Grinding, and Polishing Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders	19	5
682	Cutters and Trimmers, Hand	19	5
685	Extruding, Forming, Pressing, and Compacting Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders	19	5
688	Furnace, Kiln, Oven, Drier, and Kettle Operators and Tenders	19	5
691	Layout Workers, Metal and Plastic	19	5
697	Molders, Shapers, and Casters, Except Metal and Plastic	19	5
698	Ophthalmic Laboratory Technicians	19	5
699	Painting, Coating, and Decorating Workers	19	5
701	Power Plant Operators	19	5
703	Sawing Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Wood	19	5
705	Stationary Engineers and Boiler Operators	19	7
706	Tire Builders	19	5
707	Tool and Die Makers	19	5
709	Welding, Soldering, and Brazing Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders	19	5
711	Aircraft Structure, Surfaces, Rigging, and Systems Assemblers	18	6
712	Biofuels Processing Technicians	18	5
718	Electrical and Electronic Equipment Assemblers	18	4
720	Extruding and Forming Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Synthetic and Glass Fibers	18	5
727	Glass Blowers, Molders, Benders, and Finishers	18	5
728	Jewelers and Precious Stone and Metal Workers	18	5
733	Pourers and Casters, Metal	18	5
734	Print Binding and Finishing Workers	18	5
735	Rolling Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic	18	5
737	Textile Knitting and Weaving Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders	18	5
738	Tool Grinders, Filers, and Sharpeners	18	5
742	Cutting and Slicing Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders	17	5
743	Cutting, Punching, and Press Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic	17	5
746	Electromechanical Equipment Assemblers	17	4
747	Engine and Other Machine Assemblers	17	6
751	Foundry Mold and Coremakers	17	5
752	Gem and Diamond Workers	17	5
753	Grinding and Polishing Workers, Hand	17	5
754	Helpers--Production Workers	17	7
755	Laundry and Dry-Cleaning Workers	17	5
764	Textile Winding, Twisting, and Drawing Out Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders	17	5
769	Cabinetmakers and Bench Carpenters	16	5
771	Cleaning, Washing, and Metal Pickling Equipment Operators and Tenders	16	6
774	Etchers and Engravers	16	6
776	Fiberglass Laminators and Fabricators	16	5
784	Sewers, Hand	16	5
785	Shoe and Leather Workers and Repairers	16	5
786	Shoe Machine Operators and Tenders	16	5
787	Structural Metal Fabricators and Fitters	16	5
789	Water and Wastewater Treatment Plant and System Operators	16	5
790	Welders, Cutters, Solderers, and Brazers	16	5
791	Coil Winders, Tapers, and Finishers	15	6
793	Dental Laboratory Technicians	15	5
798	Medical Appliance Technicians	15	5
803	Paper Goods Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders	15	6
804	Pressers, Textile, Garment, and Related Materials	15	5
805	Production Workers, All Other	15	2
808	Sewing Machine Operators	15	6
812	Coating, Painting, and Spraying Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders	14	5
826	Potters, Manufacturing	14	5
838	Forging Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders, Metal and Plastic	13	5
869	Furniture Finishers	12	5
883	Upholsterers	12	5
897	Tailors, Dressmakers, and Custom Sewers	11	5
908	Hydroelectric Plant Technicians	10	5
911	Plant and System Operators, All Other	10	3
914	Stone Cutters and Carvers, Manufacturing	10	5
946	Timing Device Assemblers and Adjusters	8	6

The evidence behind these scores

Each score aggregates published academic and industry estimates for that occupation, calibrated onto a common scale before they are combined. Across manufacturing, the thinnest occupation rests on 2 sources and the best evidenced on 9. Occupations backed by fewer than two distinct sources are not published at all, here or anywhere on the site.

See the dataset and its limits, or the full ranking in one table.

A sector average is not your score

Roles across manufacturing already run 42 points apart, and the number above is the baseline for a typical version of each one. Seniority and how routine your day is move your own score further still. Answer a few questions and get it free, no sign-up.

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Other sectors

Every sector with at least 15 published occupations has its own baseline. Compare all of them, or browse occupations grouped by sector.

Informational guidance based on published research, not professional career or financial advice. Scores update as new research is ingested.