Occupation baseline · Research consensus
Will AI replace First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers?
Baseline AI displacement risk for First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers, aggregated from 6 research sources.
What this score means
First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers leans toward the safer end for Manufacturing. Parts of the role touch tasks AI is getting good at, but the core still depends on hands on work or judgment that resists automation. At 30 out of 100 it scores 11 points above the Manufacturing average of 19. Across the 6 sources behind this baseline, individual estimates run from 14 to 50, so the score is a weighted consensus rather than any single figure.
The number is a consensus estimate for the typical version of the role, built from published academic and industry research scored occupation by occupation. It is not a prediction about any individual. How scoring works
What this job actually involves
Exposure follows the work itself rather than the job title, so it is worth seeing what the role is made of. These are the tasks O*NET records for First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers, most central first, showing 12 of 20.
- 01Enforce safety and sanitation regulations.
- 02Keep records of employees' attendance and hours worked.
- 03Inspect materials, products, or equipment to detect defects or malfunctions.
- 04Read and analyze charts, work orders, production schedules, and other records and reports to determine production requirements and to evaluate current production estimates and outputs.
- 05Plan and establish work schedules, assignments, and production sequences to meet production goals.
- 06Confer with other supervisors to coordinate operations and activities within or between departments.
- 07Interpret specifications, blueprints, job orders, and company policies and procedures for workers.
- 08Observe work and monitor gauges, dials, and other indicators to ensure that operators conform to production or processing standards.
- 09Direct and coordinate the activities of employees engaged in the production or processing of goods, such as inspectors, machine setters, or fabricators.
- 10Conduct employee training in equipment operations or work and safety procedures, or assign employee training to experienced workers.
- 11Evaluate employee performance.
- 12Confer with management or subordinates to resolve worker problems, complaints, or grievances.
Task statements from O*NET by the National Center for O*NET Development, used under CC BY 4.0. The tasks are descriptive; the exposure score above is ours.
The research behind this score
This baseline aggregates 6 research sources that scored First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers for AI and automation exposure. More recent, higher confidence studies carry more weight in the final number.
- 01Anthropic Economic Index 2026 - AI Task Exposure · 2026Anthropic
- 02Global Automation Atlas: Task Substitution Exposure by Occupation · 2026Garg, Crosta, Baier (2026), arXiv:2605.17086
- 03Generative AI and Jobs: A Refined Global Index of Occupational Exposure · 2025International Labour Organization, Working Paper 140 (2025)
- 04Working with AI: Measuring the Applicability of Generative AI to Occupations · 2025Tomlinson, Jaffe et al., Microsoft Research (2025)
- 05GPTs are GPTs: Labor Market Impact Potential of LLMs · 2024Eloundou, Manning, Mishkin, Rock (Science, 2024)
- 06AI Occupational Exposure to Language Modeling · 2023Felten, Raj, Seamans (2023)
Common questions
- How likely is AI to replace First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers?
- Published research puts First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers at 30 out of 100 for AI displacement risk, in the lower risk band. The number is a weighted consensus of 6 research sources and describes the typical version of the role, not any individual.
- Do researchers agree on the risk for First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers?
- Only partly. Individual estimates for First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers run from 14 to 50 out of 100 across the 6 sources behind this score, so the single number smooths over real disagreement. More recent and higher confidence studies carry more weight in it.
- Which manufacturing roles face similar AI exposure?
- The closest published manufacturing roles to First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers by score are Meat, Poultry, and Fish Cutters and Trimmers (28/100), Computer Numerically Controlled Tool Operators (27/100), and Fabric and Apparel Patternmakers (27/100). Each has its own page with the research behind its number.
Also covers
Abattoir Supervisor · Abrasive and Polished Products Supervisor · Acid Supervisor · Aerosol Supervisor · Aging Department Supervisor · Agricultural Chemicals Shift Superintendent · Alteration Workroom Supervisor · Alum Plant Supervisor and related titles
Estimated displacement window
The dated estimate for this role is included in the full personalised report.
Your number is not the baseline
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More manufacturing occupations
- Power Distributors and Dispatchers34/100
- Prepress Technicians and Workers34/100
- Meat, Poultry, and Fish Cutters and Trimmers28/100
- Computer Numerically Controlled Tool Operators27/100
- Fabric and Apparel Patternmakers27/100
- Assemblers and Fabricators, All Other26/100
- Adhesive Bonding Machine Operators and Tenders24/100
- Bakers24/100
Informational guidance based on published research, not professional career or financial advice. Scores update as new research is ingested.