Sector baseline · Research consensus

AI displacement risk in public sector / government

Public Sector / Government averages 23 out of 100 across 27 published occupations. Behind it, Gambling Surveillance Officers and Gambling Investigators scores 36 and Firefighters scores 9, a 27 point spread. That is narrower than the 42 point gap between the most and least exposed sector overall, so Public Sector / Government moves together more than most fields do.

Sector average, out of 100

Occupations scored

Point spread, 9 to 36

Occupations scoring 40 or above

How the sector splits

Of the 27, 0 occupations clear 70 and count as high risk, 0 sit between 40 and 69, and 27 fall below 40.

Exposure follows the tasks inside a role rather than the field it sits in, so two jobs that share a sector can still land far apart. The whole published set averages 31 across 961 occupations in 21 sectors. How scoring works

Every public sector / government occupation, most exposed first

Rank is against the full published set, not against the sector. Every occupation here is backed by at least two distinct published studies.

AI displacement risk scores for 27 public sector / government occupations
Rank	Occupation	Score	Sources
360	Gambling Surveillance Officers and Gambling Investigators	36	6
391	Customs and Border Protection Officers	34	5
404	Private Detectives and Investigators	34	6
447	Retail Loss Prevention Specialists	31	5
457	Intelligence Analysts	30	5
498	Transportation Security Screeners	28	5
512	Parking Enforcement Workers	27	5
515	Security Guards	27	7
534	School Bus Monitors	26	4
543	Bailiffs	25	6
546	First-Line Supervisors of Security Workers	25	3
554	Police and Sheriff's Patrol Officers	25	10
555	Protective Service Workers, All Other	25	3
579	Police Identification and Records Officers	24	6
586	Detectives and Criminal Investigators	23	5
632	Crossing Guards and Flaggers	21	5
636	First-Line Supervisors of Police and Detectives	21	6
677	Animal Control Workers	19	5
686	Fire Inspectors and Investigators	19	5
716	Correctional Officers and Jailers	18	9
722	First-Line Supervisors of Correctional Officers	18	5
724	First-Line Supervisors of Firefighting and Prevention Workers	18	5
725	Forest Fire Inspectors and Prevention Specialists	18	5
739	Transit and Railroad Police	18	5
749	Fish and Game Wardens	17	5
842	Lifeguards, Ski Patrol, and Other Recreational Protective Service Workers	13	5
921	Firefighters	9	7

The evidence behind these scores

Each score aggregates published academic and industry estimates for that occupation, calibrated onto a common scale before they are combined. Across public sector / government, the thinnest occupation rests on 3 sources and the best evidenced on 10. Occupations backed by fewer than two distinct sources are not published at all, here or anywhere on the site.

See the dataset and its limits, or the full ranking in one table.

A sector average is not your score

Roles across public sector / government already run 27 points apart, and the number above is the baseline for a typical version of each one. Seniority and how routine your day is move your own score further still. Answer a few questions and get it free, no sign-up.

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Other sectors

Every sector with at least 15 published occupations has its own baseline. Compare all of them, or browse occupations grouped by sector.

Informational guidance based on published research, not professional career or financial advice. Scores update as new research is ingested.