Will AI replace Firefighters?

What this score means

Firefighters is among the least exposed roles in Public Sector / Government. Most of what the job involves still sits outside what current AI can do, even as the tools around it keep changing. At 9 out of 100 it scores 14 points below the Public Sector / Government average of 23. Across the 7 sources behind this baseline, individual estimates run from 5 to 24, so the score is a weighted consensus rather than any single figure.

The number is a consensus estimate for the typical version of the role, built from published academic and industry research scored occupation by occupation. It is not a prediction about any individual. How scoring works

What this job actually involves

Exposure follows the work itself rather than the job title, so it is worth seeing what the role is made of. These are the tasks O*NET records for Firefighters, most central first, showing 12 of 30.

• 01Rescue survivors from burning buildings, accident sites, and water hazards.
• 02Dress with equipment such as fire-resistant clothing and breathing apparatus.
• 03Assess fires and situations and report conditions to superiors to receive instructions, using two-way radios.
• 04Move toward the source of a fire, using knowledge of types of fires, construction design, building materials, and physical layout of properties.
• 05Respond to fire alarms and other calls for assistance, such as automobile and industrial accidents.
• 06Create openings in buildings for ventilation or entrance, using axes, chisels, crowbars, electric saws, or core cutters.
• 07Drive and operate fire fighting vehicles and equipment.
• 08Inspect fire sites after flames have been extinguished to ensure that there is no further danger.
• 09Position and climb ladders to gain access to upper levels of buildings, or to rescue individuals from burning structures.
• 10Select and attach hose nozzles, depending on fire type, and direct streams of water or chemicals onto fires.
• 11Operate pumps connected to high-pressure hoses.
• 12Maintain contact with fire dispatchers at all times to notify them of the need for additional firefighters and supplies, or to detail any difficulties encountered.

Task statements from O*NET by the National Center for O*NET Development, used under CC BY 4.0. The tasks are descriptive; the exposure score above is ours.

The research behind this score

This baseline aggregates 7 research sources that scored Firefighters for AI and automation exposure. More recent, higher confidence studies carry more weight in the final number.

• 01Anthropic Economic Index 2026 - AI Task Exposure · 2026Anthropic
• 02Crashing Waves vs. Rising Tides: Preliminary Findings on AI Automation from Thousands of Worker Evaluations of Labor Market Tasks · 2026Mertens, Thompson et al., MIT FutureTech (2026)
• 03Global Automation Atlas: Task Substitution Exposure by Occupation · 2026Garg, Crosta, Baier (2026), arXiv:2605.17086
• 04The AI Jobs Transition Framework: Mapping AI's Near-Term Impact on Jobs · 2026OpenAI Economic Research (2026)
• 05Working with AI: Measuring the Applicability of Generative AI to Occupations · 2025Tomlinson, Jaffe et al., Microsoft Research (2025)
• 06GPTs are GPTs: Labor Market Impact Potential of LLMs · 2024Eloundou, Manning, Mishkin, Rock (Science, 2024)
• 07AI Occupational Exposure to Language Modeling · 2023Felten, Raj, Seamans (2023)

Common questions

How likely is AI to replace Firefighters?

Published research puts Firefighters at 9 out of 100 for AI displacement risk, in the lower risk band. The number is a weighted consensus of 7 research sources and describes the typical version of the role, not any individual.

Do researchers agree on the risk for Firefighters?

Broadly, yes. Individual estimates for Firefighters run from 5 to 24 out of 100 across the 7 sources behind this score, a fairly tight range. More recent and higher confidence studies carry more weight in the final number.

Which public sector / government roles face similar AI exposure?

The closest published public sector / government roles to Firefighters by score are Lifeguards, Ski Patrol, and Other Recreational Protective Service Workers (13/100), Fish and Game Wardens (17/100), and Correctional Officers and Jailers (18/100). Each has its own page with the research behind its number.

Also covers

Airport Firefighter · Apparatus Operator · Crash Fire Firefighter · Fire Alarm Operator · Fire Apparatus Engineer · Fire Chief's Aide · Fire Engine Pump Operator · Fire Engineer and related titles

More public sector / government occupations

• Animal Control Workers19/100
• Correctional Officers and Jailers18/100
• First-Line Supervisors of Correctional Officers18/100
• First-Line Supervisors of Firefighting and Prevention Workers18/100
• Forest Fire Inspectors and Prevention Specialists18/100
• Transit and Railroad Police18/100
• Fish and Game Wardens17/100
• Lifeguards, Ski Patrol, and Other Recreational Protective Service Workers13/100