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AI Job Risk

Occupation baseline · Research consensus

Will AI replace Software Developers?

Transitioning

Baseline AI displacement risk for Software Developers, aggregated from 12 research sources.

What this score means

Software Developers sits in the middle of the exposure range for Technology. Routine parts of the job are starting to automate, but much of it still depends on judgment, relationships, and context that today's models handle poorly. At 47 out of 100 it scores 8 points below the Technology average of 55. Across the 12 sources behind this baseline, individual estimates run from 16 to 60, so the score is a weighted consensus rather than any single figure.

The number is a consensus estimate for the typical version of the role, built from published academic and industry research scored occupation by occupation. It is not a prediction about any individual. How scoring works

What this job actually involves

Exposure follows the work itself rather than the job title, so it is worth seeing what the role is made of. These are the tasks O*NET records for Software Developers, most central first, showing 12 of 17.

  • 01Analyze user needs and software requirements to determine feasibility of design within time and cost constraints.
  • 02Develop or direct software system testing or validation procedures, programming, or documentation.
  • 03Confer with systems analysts, engineers, programmers and others to design systems and to obtain information on project limitations and capabilities, performance requirements and interfaces.
  • 04Modify existing software to correct errors, adapt it to new hardware, or upgrade interfaces and improve performance.
  • 05Prepare reports or correspondence concerning project specifications, activities, or status.
  • 06Analyze information to determine, recommend, and plan installation of a new system or modification of an existing system.
  • 07Store, retrieve, and manipulate data for analysis of system capabilities and requirements.
  • 08Design, develop and modify software systems, using scientific analysis and mathematical models to predict and measure outcomes and consequences of design.
  • 09Determine system performance standards.
  • 10Consult with customers or other departments on project status, proposals, or technical issues, such as software system design or maintenance.
  • 11Confer with data processing or project managers to obtain information on limitations or capabilities for data processing projects.
  • 12Monitor functioning of equipment to ensure system operates in conformance with specifications.

Task statements from O*NET by the National Center for O*NET Development, used under CC BY 4.0. The tasks are descriptive; the exposure score above is ours.

The research behind this score

This baseline aggregates 12 research sources that scored Software Developers for AI and automation exposure. More recent, higher confidence studies carry more weight in the final number.

Common questions

How likely is AI to replace Software Developers?
Published research puts Software Developers at 47 out of 100 for AI displacement risk, in the transitioning band. The number is a weighted consensus of 12 research sources and describes the typical version of the role, not any individual.
Do researchers agree on the risk for Software Developers?
Only partly. Individual estimates for Software Developers run from 16 to 60 out of 100 across the 12 sources behind this score, so the single number smooths over real disagreement. More recent and higher confidence studies carry more weight in it.
Which technology roles face similar AI exposure?
The closest published technology roles to Software Developers by score are Computer Network Architects (48/100), Computer Systems Analysts (49/100), and Health Informatics Specialists (49/100). Each has its own page with the research behind its number.

Also covers

AI Specialist (Artificial Intelligence Specialist) · Android Developer · Application Analyst · Application Architect · Application Developer · Application Engineer · Application Integration Engineer · Application Integrator and related titles

Estimated displacement window

The dated estimate for this role is included in the full personalised report.

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Informational guidance based on published research, not professional career or financial advice. Scores update as new research is ingested.