Occupation baseline · Research consensus

Will AI replace Excavating and Loading Machine and Dragline Operators, Surface Mining?

Lower risk

Baseline AI displacement risk for Excavating and Loading Machine and Dragline Operators, Surface Mining, aggregated from 3 research sources.

What this score means

Excavating and Loading Machine and Dragline Operators, Surface Mining is among the least exposed roles in Construction & Trades. Most of what the job involves still sits outside what current AI can do, even as the tools around it keep changing. At 11 out of 100 it scores 3 points below the Construction & Trades average of 14. Across the 3 sources behind this baseline, individual estimates run from 5 to 20, so the score is a weighted consensus rather than any single figure.

The number is a consensus estimate for the typical version of the role, built from published academic and industry research scored occupation by occupation. It is not a prediction about any individual. How scoring works

What this job actually involves

Exposure follows the work itself rather than the job title, so it is worth seeing what the role is made of. These are the tasks O*NET records for Excavating and Loading Machine and Dragline Operators, Surface Mining, most central first, showing 12 of 16.

01Move levers, depress foot pedals, and turn dials to operate power machinery, such as power shovels, stripping shovels, scraper loaders, or backhoes.
02Set up or inspect equipment prior to operation.
03Become familiar with digging plans, machine capabilities and limitations, and efficient and safe digging procedures in a given application.
04Observe hand signals, grade stakes, or other markings when operating machines so that work can be performed to specifications.
05Operate machinery to perform activities such as backfilling excavations, vibrating or breaking rock or concrete, or making winter roads.
06Receive written or oral instructions regarding material movement or excavation.
07Move materials over short distances, such as around a construction site, factory, or warehouse.
08Create or maintain inclines or ramps.
09Lubricate, adjust, or repair machinery and replace parts, such as gears, bearings, or bucket teeth.
10Handle slides, mud, or pit cleanings or maintenance.
11Direct workers engaged in placing blocks or outriggers to prevent capsizing of machines when lifting heavy loads.
12Measure and verify levels of rock or gravel, bases, or other excavated material.

Task statements from O*NET by the National Center for O*NET Development, used under CC BY 4.0. The tasks are descriptive; the exposure score above is ours.

The research behind this score

This baseline aggregates 3 research sources that scored Excavating and Loading Machine and Dragline Operators, Surface Mining for AI and automation exposure. More recent, higher confidence studies carry more weight in the final number.

01Anthropic Economic Index 2026 - AI Task Exposure · 2026
02GPTs are GPTs: Labor Market Impact Potential of LLMs · 2024
03AI Occupational Exposure to Language Modeling · 2023

Also covers

Aerial Tram Operator · Air Shovel Operator · Back Digger Operator · Back Filler Operator · Back Hoe Machine Operator · Back Hoe Operator · Backhoe Operator · Clam Shovel Operator and related titles

Estimated displacement window

The dated estimate for this role is included in the full personalised report.

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Informational guidance based on published research, not professional career or financial advice. Scores update as new research is ingested.