How likely is AI to replace Commercial Divers?

Published research puts Commercial Divers at 10 out of 100 for AI displacement risk, in the lower risk band. The number is a weighted consensus of 5 research sources and describes the typical version of the role, not any individual.

Do researchers agree on the risk for Commercial Divers?

Broadly, yes. Individual estimates for Commercial Divers run from 5 to 14 out of 100 across the 5 sources behind this score, a fairly tight range. More recent and higher confidence studies carry more weight in the final number.

Which construction & trades roles face similar AI exposure?

The closest published construction & trades roles to Commercial Divers by score are Brickmasons and Blockmasons (10/100), Carpenters (10/100), and Electrical Power-Line Installers and Repairers (10/100). Each has its own page with the research behind its number.

Occupation baseline · Research consensus

Will AI replace Commercial Divers?

Lower risk

Baseline AI displacement risk for Commercial Divers, aggregated from 5 research sources.

What this score means

Commercial Divers is among the least exposed roles in Construction & Trades. Most of what the job involves still sits outside what current AI can do, even as the tools around it keep changing. At 10 out of 100 it scores 3 points below the Construction & Trades average of 13. Across the 5 sources behind this baseline, individual estimates run from 5 to 14, so the score is a weighted consensus rather than any single figure.

The number is a consensus estimate for the typical version of the role, built from published academic and industry research scored occupation by occupation. It is not a prediction about any individual. How scoring works

What this job actually involves

Exposure follows the work itself rather than the job title, so it is worth seeing what the role is made of. These are the tasks O*NET records for Commercial Divers, most central first, showing 12 of 23.

01Take appropriate safety precautions, such as monitoring dive lengths and depths and registering with authorities before diving expeditions begin.
02Check and maintain diving equipment, such as helmets, masks, air tanks, harnesses, or gauges.
03Communicate with workers on the surface while underwater, using signal lines or telephones.
04Descend into water with the aid of diver helpers, using scuba gear or diving suits.
05Obtain information about diving tasks and environmental conditions.
06Supervise or train other divers, including hobby divers.
07Inspect the condition of underwater steel or wood structures.
08Inspect and test docks, ships, buoyage systems, plant intakes or outflows, or underwater pipelines, cables, or sewers, using closed circuit television, still photography, and testing equipment.
09Repair ships, bridge foundations, or other structures below the water line, using caulk, bolts, and hand tools.
10Recover objects by placing rigging around sunken objects, hooking rigging to crane lines, and operating winches, derricks, or cranes to raise objects.
11Operate underwater video, sonar, recording, or related equipment to investigate underwater structures or marine life.
12Take test samples or photographs to assess the condition of vessels or structures.

Task statements from O*NET by the National Center for O*NET Development, used under CC BY 4.0. The tasks are descriptive; the exposure score above is ours.

The research behind this score

This baseline aggregates 5 research sources that scored Commercial Divers for AI and automation exposure. More recent, higher confidence studies carry more weight in the final number.

01Anthropic Economic Index 2026 - AI Task Exposure · 2026Anthropic
02Global Automation Atlas: Task Substitution Exposure by Occupation · 2026Garg, Crosta, Baier (2026), arXiv:2605.17086
03Working with AI: Measuring the Applicability of Generative AI to Occupations · 2025Tomlinson, Jaffe et al., Microsoft Research (2025)
04GPTs are GPTs: Labor Market Impact Potential of LLMs · 2024Eloundou, Manning, Mishkin, Rock (Science, 2024)
05AI Occupational Exposure to Language Modeling · 2023Felten, Raj, Seamans (2023)

Common questions

How likely is AI to replace Commercial Divers?: Published research puts Commercial Divers at 10 out of 100 for AI displacement risk, in the lower risk band. The number is a weighted consensus of 5 research sources and describes the typical version of the role, not any individual.
Do researchers agree on the risk for Commercial Divers?: Broadly, yes. Individual estimates for Commercial Divers run from 5 to 14 out of 100 across the 5 sources behind this score, a fairly tight range. More recent and higher confidence studies carry more weight in the final number.
Which construction & trades roles face similar AI exposure?: The closest published construction & trades roles to Commercial Divers by score are Brickmasons and Blockmasons (10/100), Carpenters (10/100), and Electrical Power-Line Installers and Repairers (10/100). Each has its own page with the research behind its number.

Also covers

Aquarium Diver · Area Commercial Diver · Certified Diver · Commercial Diver · Deep Sea Diver · Dive Tender · Divemaster · Diver and related titles

Estimated displacement window

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Informational guidance based on published research, not professional career or financial advice. Scores update as new research is ingested.