Sector baseline · Research consensus
AI displacement risk in social services
Social Services averages 33 out of 100 across 15 published occupations. Behind it, Educational, Guidance, and Career Counselors and Advisors scores 41 and Substance Abuse and Behavioral Disorder Counselors scores 27, a 14 point spread. That is narrower than the 42 point gap between the most and least exposed sector overall, so Social Services moves together more than most fields do.
33
Sector average, out of 100
15
Occupations scored
14
Point spread, 27 to 41
2
Occupations scoring 40 or above
How the sector splits
Of the 15, 0 occupations clear 70 and count as high risk, 2 sit between 40 and 69, and 13 fall below 40.
Exposure follows the tasks inside a role rather than the field it sits in, so two jobs that share a sector can still land far apart. The whole published set averages 31 across 961 occupations in 21 sectors. How scoring works
Every social services occupation, most exposed first
Rank is against the full published set, not against the sector. Every occupation here is backed by at least two distinct published studies.
| Rank | Occupation | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 261 | Educational, Guidance, and Career Counselors and Advisors | 41 |
| 276 | Directors, Religious Activities and Education | 40 |
| 292 | Clergy | 39 |
| 321 | Health Education Specialists | 38 |
| 336 | Community and Social Service Specialists, All Other | 37 |
| 364 | Healthcare Social Workers | 36 |
| 405 | Rehabilitation Counselors | 34 |
| 430 | Probation Officers and Correctional Treatment Specialists | 32 |
| 434 | Child, Family, and School Social Workers | 31 |
| 441 | Mental Health Counselors | 31 |
| 448 | Social and Human Service Assistants | 31 |
| 461 | Marriage and Family Therapists | 30 |
| 487 | Community Health Workers | 28 |
| 511 | Mental Health and Substance Abuse Social Workers | 27 |
| 519 | Substance Abuse and Behavioral Disorder Counselors | 27 |
The evidence behind these scores
Each score aggregates published academic and industry estimates for that occupation, calibrated onto a common scale before they are combined. Across social services, the thinnest occupation rests on 3 sources and the best evidenced on 8. Occupations backed by fewer than two distinct sources are not published at all, here or anywhere on the site.
See the dataset and its limits, or the full ranking in one table.
A sector average is not your score
Roles across social services already run 14 points apart, and the number above is the baseline for a typical version of each one. Seniority and how routine your day is move your own score further still. Answer a few questions and get it free, no sign-up.
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Other sectors
Every sector with at least 15 published occupations has its own baseline. Compare all of them, or browse occupations grouped by sector.
Informational guidance based on published research, not professional career or financial advice. Scores update as new research is ingested.