How likely is AI to replace Substitute Teachers, Short-Term?

Published research puts Substitute Teachers, Short-Term at 30 out of 100 for AI displacement risk, in the lower risk band. The number is a weighted consensus of 6 research sources and describes the typical version of the role, not any individual.

Do researchers agree on the risk for Substitute Teachers, Short-Term?

Only partly. Individual estimates for Substitute Teachers, Short-Term run from 8 to 65 out of 100 across the 6 sources behind this score, so the single number smooths over real disagreement. More recent and higher confidence studies carry more weight in it.

Which education roles face similar AI exposure?

The closest published education roles to Substitute Teachers, Short-Term by score are Special Education Teachers, Kindergarten (28/100), Physics Teachers, Postsecondary (33/100), and Career/Technical Education Teachers, Middle School (27/100). Each has its own page with the research behind its number.

Occupation baseline · Research consensus

Will AI replace Substitute Teachers, Short-Term?

Lower risk

Baseline AI displacement risk for Substitute Teachers, Short-Term, aggregated from 6 research sources.

What this score means

Substitute Teachers, Short-Term leans toward the safer end for Education. Parts of the role touch tasks AI is getting good at, but the core still depends on hands on work or judgment that resists automation. At 30 out of 100 it scores 9 points below the Education average of 39. Across the 6 sources behind this baseline, individual estimates run from 8 to 65, so the score is a weighted consensus rather than any single figure.

The number is a consensus estimate for the typical version of the role, built from published academic and industry research scored occupation by occupation. It is not a prediction about any individual. How scoring works

What this job actually involves

Exposure follows the work itself rather than the job title, so it is worth seeing what the role is made of. These are the tasks O*NET records for Substitute Teachers, Short-Term, most central first, showing 12 of 18.

01Enforce school and class rules to maintain order in the classroom.
02Answer students' questions.
03Follow lesson plans designed by absent teachers.
04Take class attendance and maintain attendance records.
05Supervise students during activities outside the classroom, such as recess, lunch, and field trips.
06Teach social skills to students, such as communication, conflict resolution, and etiquette.
07Tutor or assist students individually or in small groups.
08Distribute or collect tests or homework assignments.
09Distribute teaching materials, such as textbooks, workbooks, papers, and pencils, to students.
10Teach a variety of subjects, such as English, mathematics, and social studies.
11Operate equipment such as computers or audio-visual aids to supplement presentations.
12Counsel students with adjustment or academic problems.

Task statements from O*NET by the National Center for O*NET Development, used under CC BY 4.0. The tasks are descriptive; the exposure score above is ours.

The research behind this score

This baseline aggregates 6 research sources that scored Substitute Teachers, Short-Term for AI and automation exposure. More recent, higher confidence studies carry more weight in the final number.

01Global Automation Atlas: Task Substitution Exposure by Occupation · 2026Garg, Crosta, Baier (2026), arXiv:2605.17086
02Generative AI and Jobs: A Refined Global Index of Occupational Exposure · 2025International Labour Organization, Working Paper 140 (2025)
03Working with AI: Measuring the Applicability of Generative AI to Occupations · 2025Tomlinson, Jaffe et al., Microsoft Research (2025)
04GPTs are GPTs: Labor Market Impact Potential of LLMs · 2024Eloundou, Manning, Mishkin, Rock (Science, 2024)
05AI Occupational Exposure to Language Modeling · 2023Felten, Raj, Seamans (2023)
06Generative AI and the Future of Work in America · 2023McKinsey Global Institute (2023)

Common questions

How likely is AI to replace Substitute Teachers, Short-Term?: Published research puts Substitute Teachers, Short-Term at 30 out of 100 for AI displacement risk, in the lower risk band. The number is a weighted consensus of 6 research sources and describes the typical version of the role, not any individual.
Do researchers agree on the risk for Substitute Teachers, Short-Term?: Only partly. Individual estimates for Substitute Teachers, Short-Term run from 8 to 65 out of 100 across the 6 sources behind this score, so the single number smooths over real disagreement. More recent and higher confidence studies carry more weight in it.
Which education roles face similar AI exposure?: The closest published education roles to Substitute Teachers, Short-Term by score are Special Education Teachers, Kindergarten (28/100), Physics Teachers, Postsecondary (33/100), and Career/Technical Education Teachers, Middle School (27/100). Each has its own page with the research behind its number.

Also covers

Building Sub (Building Substitute) · Building Sub Teacher (Building Substitute Teacher) · Certified Sub Teacher (Certified Substitute Teacher) · Child Development Sub Teacher (Child Development Substitute Teacher) · Classroom Sub Teacher (Classroom Substitute Teacher) · ESL Sub (English as a Second Language Substitute) · Elementary Sub Teacher (Elementary Substitute Teacher) · English Sub Teacher (English Substitute Teacher) and related titles

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Informational guidance based on published research, not professional career or financial advice. Scores update as new research is ingested.