Will AI replace First-Line Supervisors of Landscaping, Lawn Service, and Groundskeeping Workers?

What this score means

First-Line Supervisors of Landscaping, Lawn Service, and Groundskeeping Workers leans toward the safer end for Facilities & Services. Parts of the role touch tasks AI is getting good at, but the core still depends on hands on work or judgment that resists automation. At 29 out of 100 it scores 12 points above the Facilities & Services average of 17. Across the 5 sources behind this baseline, individual estimates run from 17 to 48, so the score is a weighted consensus rather than any single figure.

The number is a consensus estimate for the typical version of the role, built from published academic and industry research scored occupation by occupation. It is not a prediction about any individual. How scoring works

What this job actually involves

Exposure follows the work itself rather than the job title, so it is worth seeing what the role is made of. These are the tasks O*NET records for First-Line Supervisors of Landscaping, Lawn Service, and Groundskeeping Workers, most central first, showing 12 of 28.

• 01Establish and enforce operating procedures and work standards that will ensure adequate performance and personnel safety.
• 02Schedule work for crews, depending on work priorities, crew or equipment availability, or weather conditions.
• 03Tour grounds, such as parks, botanical gardens, cemeteries, or golf courses, to inspect conditions of plants and soil.
• 04Monitor project activities to ensure that instructions are followed, deadlines are met, and schedules are maintained.
• 05Direct activities of workers who perform duties, such as landscaping, cultivating lawns, or pruning trees and shrubs.
• 06Inspect completed work to ensure conformance to specifications, standards, and contract requirements.
• 07Plant or maintain vegetation through activities such as mulching, fertilizing, watering, mowing, or pruning.
• 08Direct or perform mixing or application of fertilizers, insecticides, herbicides, or fungicides.
• 09Train workers in tasks such as transplanting or pruning trees or shrubs, finishing cement, using equipment, or caring for turf.
• 10Prepare service estimates based on labor, material, and machine costs and maintain budgets for individual projects.
• 11Identify diseases or pests affecting landscaping and order appropriate treatments.
• 12Inventory supplies of tools, equipment, or materials to ensure that sufficient supplies are available and items are in usable condition.

Task statements from O*NET by the National Center for O*NET Development, used under CC BY 4.0. The tasks are descriptive; the exposure score above is ours.

The research behind this score

This baseline aggregates 5 research sources that scored First-Line Supervisors of Landscaping, Lawn Service, and Groundskeeping Workers for AI and automation exposure. More recent, higher confidence studies carry more weight in the final number.

• 01Anthropic Economic Index 2026 - AI Task Exposure · 2026Anthropic
• 02Global Automation Atlas: Task Substitution Exposure by Occupation · 2026Garg, Crosta, Baier (2026), arXiv:2605.17086
• 03Working with AI: Measuring the Applicability of Generative AI to Occupations · 2025Tomlinson, Jaffe et al., Microsoft Research (2025)
• 04GPTs are GPTs: Labor Market Impact Potential of LLMs · 2024Eloundou, Manning, Mishkin, Rock (Science, 2024)
• 05AI Occupational Exposure to Language Modeling · 2023Felten, Raj, Seamans (2023)

Common questions

How likely is AI to replace First-Line Supervisors of Landscaping, Lawn Service, and Groundskeeping Workers?

Published research puts First-Line Supervisors of Landscaping, Lawn Service, and Groundskeeping Workers at 29 out of 100 for AI displacement risk, in the lower risk band. The number is a weighted consensus of 5 research sources and describes the typical version of the role, not any individual.

Do researchers agree on the risk for First-Line Supervisors of Landscaping, Lawn Service, and Groundskeeping Workers?

Only partly. Individual estimates for First-Line Supervisors of Landscaping, Lawn Service, and Groundskeeping Workers run from 17 to 48 out of 100 across the 5 sources behind this score, so the single number smooths over real disagreement. More recent and higher confidence studies carry more weight in it.

Which facilities & services roles face similar AI exposure?

The closest published facilities & services roles to First-Line Supervisors of Landscaping, Lawn Service, and Groundskeeping Workers by score are First-Line Supervisors of Housekeeping and Janitorial Workers (28/100), Pest Control Workers (21/100), and Pesticide Handlers, Sprayers, and Applicators, Vegetation (19/100). Each has its own page with the research behind its number.

Also covers

Arborist Crew Leader · Buildings and Grounds Supervisor · Cemetery Workers Supervisor · Field Manager · Gardening Manager · Gardening Supervisor · Golf Course Manager · Golf Course Superintendent and related titles

More facilities & services occupations

• First-Line Supervisors of Housekeeping and Janitorial Workers28/100
• Pest Control Workers21/100
• Pesticide Handlers, Sprayers, and Applicators, Vegetation19/100
• Grounds Maintenance Workers, All Other15/100
• Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners13/100
• Janitors and Cleaners, Except Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners12/100
• Tree Trimmers and Pruners10/100
• Landscaping and Groundskeeping Workers9/100